Record El Nino Looms: WMO Warns of 3.7C Pacific Heat Surge
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the UN weather agency said El Nino is almost certain to last through February 2027, with a peak expected around December.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: “El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” while warning it could potentially be “one of the strongest since at least 1950.”
The numbers are stark. Sea-surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are forecast to average roughly 3.7C (6.7F) above normal from October to December, which the WMO said would be “the highest since observations began.” The previous record was 2.6C (4.7F) above normal, set from November 2015 to January 2016.
Above-average temperatures are likely across large parts of the globe, and rainfall patterns are expected to shift significantly, the agency said.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central and East Asia, northern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America and southeastern South America. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America.
Saulo stressed that El Nino does not generate extra planetary heat but releases warmth already stored in the ocean, and that the reservoir feeding the current event is “the warmest we’ve ever measured it.”
National meteorological services and regional climate forums are issuing regular updates to governments and humanitarian partners to support preparedness and risk management, the WMO said.
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